The next pandemic is not far away, what else can humanity do?
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Although the weakening and vaccination of the COVID-19 virus, as well as the clinical treatment of COVID-19 infection, have made people less panic about the COVID-19 epidemic, there is still a long way to go before the end of the worst public health crisis in a century. long. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a long-term impact on human society. In the past, how to learn from the mistakes of the COVID-19 pandemic is inevitable to prepare for future crises.
In fact, from the perspective of the epidemic, a risk that must be reminded is that the COVID-19 epidemic may only be the beginning. As environmental risks intensify, people could face the next global contagion at any time.
The COVID-19 pandemic is not a complete accident
In 2003, after the battle-like test of life and death, people finally sent away the SARS epidemic. Since then, experts including the WHO have proudly announced that the SARS epidemic will not be repeated.
However, it turns out that, like several pandemics in human history, the SARS virus is only one of many viruses that humans have encountered. In recent years, avian flu, swine flu, Zika virus, Ebola and other viruses have continuously raided human society. It was not until the outbreak of the COVID-19 pneumonia epidemic that swept the world that people deeply realized that today, with such a developed economy, human beings are still vulnerable to viruses.
The COVID-19 virus is a classic zoonotic virus that originated in non-human animals and spread to humans through a process called an "intermediate host" . In fact, whether it is SARS virus, MERS virus or COVID-19 virus, although not all zoonotic diseases will develop into pandemics, most of them are caused by zoonotic diseases, which have become human characteristics of the era.
As John N. Nkengasong from the African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said, the current COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented but expected. Earlier, Aaron Bernstein, director of the Harvard Center for Climate, Health and the Global Environment, also said, "The coronavirus pandemic is not surprising at all. Infectious diseases are caused by the spillover of pathogens from wildlife into humans."
Aaron Bernstein believes that the main reason for this cross-infection is the change in the way humans treat nature, such as rapid deforestation and the global wildlife trade, "There is no free lunch in nature, we are in the same bacterial pool with other animals. Swimming. If we stretch the fabric of life too long, something will jump out of the pool of bacteria and fall on us."
At present, more and more scientists have said that the emergence of new viruses such as the COVID-19 virus is precisely because human activities have destroyed biodiversity. Together, these researchers have launched a new research discipline, "Earth Health," which specializes in the delicate and complex relationship between human health and other biological species and natural ecosystems as a whole. The study found that the destruction of biodiversity can increase the number of pandemics.
As David Quiman puts it in Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Pandemic: "In tropical rainforests and other wildlife environments, there is a rich diversity of flora and fauna, but also many hidden But we invade these environments: we cut down trees, we kill animals or cage them and send them to market. We destroy ecosystems, we let viruses leave their natural hosts. These viruses need a A new host, so they found us."
In a letter to Congress, a coalition of wildlife and conservation groups estimated that animal-borne diseases have tripled over the past 50 years. Relatively speaking, changes in land use have had the largest negative impact on nature since 1970. Agriculture alone occupies more than 1/3 of the land area, and it is also the economic activity that most affects nature.
Thus, intensified animal husbandry and agriculture, international trade in exotic animals, and increasing human encroachment on wildlife habitat, coupled with the development of international travel networks and urbanization, have disrupted the human-animal-environment boundaries. The boundaries between humans and animals are broken, creating conditions for the spread of infectious diseases from animals to humans. The exponential growth of human populations and the overexploitation of the environment by humans have made the widespread spread of pathogens easier and more serious.
For example, once bats and pangolins carrying the COVID-19 virus are taken out of their natural environment and into cities, it is equivalent to implanting a distribution center for wildlife diseases in densely populated areas, which greatly increases the spread of animal-borne diseases possible.
The next pandemic is not far away
With rapid globalization and the deterioration of the natural environment, the COVID-19 epidemic may only be the beginning. As environmental risks intensify, people could face the next global contagion at any time. Bill Gates said publicly in February that the risk of serious illness from the COVID-19 virus had been "substantially reduced," but another pandemic was almost certain.
Recently, a paper published in "Nature" gave clearer data and predictions . Using a model of mammalian virus-sharing patterns, the researchers predicted future opportunities for cross-species virus transmission among 3,139 animal species. New encounters between mammal species have the potential to occur anywhere in the world, but will be concentrated in areas with high population densities in tropical Africa and Southeast Asia.
The results show that at least 15,000 new cross-species virus transmissions are expected to occur by 2070, driven by climate change. These increased opportunities for virus sharing could raise the risk of new infectious diseases jumping from animals to humans in the next 50 years, especially in Africa and Asia. The study anticipates that these new virus-sharing events are largely driven by bats, which may carry viruses that are easily transmitted to humans.
Researchers predict that as the global climate continues to warm, wild animals with many parasites and pathogens will be forced to migrate their habitats . However, these desperate wild animals are likely to migrate to places where humans live. This phenomenon will greatly increase the risk of virus transmission to humans, leading to new epidemic outbreaks.
The scientists also point out that climate-driven species dispersal and viral evolution may already be happening. These shifts may have led to the emergence of Ebola, coronavirus or other new viruses, and made new viruses harder to track and easier for viruses to cross “stepping stone” species into humans, where pathogens spread from wild animals to humans. In fact, this phenomenon has appeared in different regions.
In August 2016, a 12-year-old boy died after contracting anthrax in the tundra of the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia, within the polar circle, and at least 20 others were hospitalized. One possible origin of this anthrax infection is that 75 years ago, a reindeer infected with anthrax died and its carcass was buried in the permafrost. The permafrost thawed in the heat of the summer of 2016, re-exposing the caribou's carcass and releasing anthrax into nearby water and soil, where the virus entered the food chain. As a result, more than 2,000 reindeer grazing nearby became infected, eventually leading to some human infections.
In the July 2020 report of the British "Independent", Professor Jean Michel Claverie, a virologist at the University of Aix-Marseille in France, also pointed out that once the virus released from glaciers and permafrost comes into contact with a suitable host, They may be resurrected. Therefore, if humans are exposed to a previously frozen pandemic virus, they could become infected, starting a new pandemic.
Of course, whether a once lethal virus is still active after being frozen and released, or whether its lethality is weakened, still needs academic research and more adequate confirmation. But under the anomaly of a warming climate, what is certain is that environmental change has pushed us into a situation where we are at greater risk. The increase in uncertainty is closely related to climate change, but at present, people are still not enough vigilance.
What else can people do?
The world has faced many global health crises over the past two decades, but it is clear that people are not prepared, as the COVID-19 pandemic is proof.
From the past, first and foremost, in the face of the next pandemic that may arise in the future, the most important thing is that the health care system cannot wait for an outbreak to respond. In fact, no amount of research and scientific development can compensate for poor leadership, lack of coordination within government, and lack of international cooperation between countries.
On February 28, 2020, the top international journal "New England Journal of Medicine" also published an article by Bill Gates entitled "Responding to Covid-19 — A Once-in-a-Century Pandemic?" From a macro perspective, Bill Gates proposed ways to solve the current epidemic and prevent the next one, and issued a warning: COVID-19 pneumonia may become a once-in-a-century pandemic, and global leaders should act immediately to strengthen the basic medical system, and Establish and improve the early warning and prevention and control system for epidemics.
Undoubtedly, in the case of this pandemic, people should take the necessary measures to protect humanity from threats, such as through some political, social and behavioral scientific research, so that public health authorities can better persuade people to act in epidemics Correct decision.
Second, pandemics and mortality also magnify countless potentially common health conditions, such as diabetes, high blood pressure, and more. Clearly, the COVID-19 pandemic is not just a fight against an infectious disease, but a recognition of the importance of long-term planning and investment in the healthcare system. At the same time, education is also absolutely critical moving forward, which will be at the heart of a stronger and more resilient public health security system.
Of course, we don't have to be too pessimistic. The global research community is joining forces to meet the enormous challenges posed by this pandemic. At no other era in the history of science has so much information been generated, shared and deployed so rapidly to respond to human threat.
Finally, while humans are accustomed to thinking about the future of humanity in a linear fashion, they tend to ignore whether the world around them also operates in a linear fashion. At present, the COVID-19 virus is still evolving in uncertainty, and how far the COVID-19 virus will threaten mankind depends on the subsequent actions and attitudes of the world. Half of the answer lies in the hands of the virus, and the other half in the hands of humans. The virus is uncontrollable, but human beings can make choices. The virus may not point to the result, but it has already hinted at the problem.
As the Nature study shows, the impact on human health could be staggering as the virus begins to spread between host species at an unprecedented rate. And climate change will be the biggest upstream risk factor for the emergence of a pandemic — ahead of high-profile issues such as deforestation, wildlife trade and industrial agriculture.
Therefore, it is necessary to combine virus surveillance with changes in species distribution due to climate change, especially in the tropics - the cradle of most infectious diseases that can spread from animals to humans. The solution, the researchers believe, is to combine wildlife disease monitoring with real-time studies of environmental changes.
The world is still in crisis, but it's too early to start talking about preparing for future pandemics.